by Trey Rentz, Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:18:39 AM EST
Tags: obama (all tags)
This is very true. It also hurts the Clinton argument as all of a sudden they are trying to argue the supers will reverse course.
And from inside the Clinton campaign:
Wall Street Journal: "Roger Altman -- the investment banker and former deputy Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton -- has advised Sen. Clinton that the time has come for her to drop out of the race, according to people close to the campaign." Via The Page
Yup, I bet he tries to hit the 2026 mark before the 31st. Depending on how close he gets with the addition of delegates from Oregon and Kentucky, it is conceivable that a SD rush upon reaching 50%+1 of the pledged delegate totals puts him over the top. At that point he can say: "Look, according to the rules that were agreed upon by everyone including Hillary, I have won the nomination."
At that point the public will perceive any shenanigans on the part of the Hillary campaign to change the results behind closed doors in the May 31st meeting as trying to change the rules in the middle of the game which is precisely what it would be.
That's possible. He'll be somewhere in the range of 60 short after the primaries tonight -- with the Pelosi Club potentially jumping in, getting 60 more in 10 days is doable.
My guess is that they're holding off on endorsing so that Obama can exceed 2025 with pledged delegates. It will look better and be easier to unite the country if the voters, not party bosses, put him over the top.
In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
That One/Another Fella '08
"My guess is that they're holding off on endorsing so that Obama can exceed 2025 with pledged delegates."
You do realize that is impossible right?
If enough supers endorse before that so that the pledged delegates put him over the top, it's easily possible.
If Superdelegates are included in the total then it isn't the Pledged Delegates putting him over the top?
I guess you are saying that you want him to get to 2025 (combined Pledged and Super) before the last primary happens and the last Pledged Delegates are assigned?
I think he's saying the opposite. "Hold off a little" means rather than handing him the nomination outright, they'll make it so that he has enough support underneath him that the final contests will put him over the mark.
I mean I guess - it was a little confusing to me too.
I'm saying that the delegate that puts him at 2025 will be a pledged delegate, not a super. It will be the result of a contest that get him to the magic number, not party bosses deciding to end it.
Say he's at 2010 delegates and there are 30 uncommitted superdelegates on the day of the Puerto Rico primary. Obama expects to get, for the sake of arguement, 22 of the 55 delegates.
The 30 uncommitteds could, if they wished, put him at 2040 (and thus give him the nomination), but they would rather wait until Puerto Rico results come in, putting Obama at 2032 and securing the nomination without making it look like the bosses are arbitrarally trying to end it.
If Clinton were actively working against Obama, there's every chance that they'd do something like that, but since she's backed off and even defending Obama from Bush/McCain, there's no reason to shut it down.
Remember that the Democratic party has benefitted enormously from letting the primaries continue.
I don't know if he can reach 2,025 with pledged delegates.
If the superdelegates did not exist, the magic number to victory would be 1,627.5 (without Michigan and Florida), which he will reach tonight. So if the superdelegates didn't exist, he'd clinch the nomination tonight.
First: None of the Superdelegates actually vote until the Convention. So your diary is incorrect, they are not "voting" for Obama.
Second: There are still well over 200 undeclared Superdelegates. If MI / FL are included that number goes up by over 50 additional Supers.
I actually think it is odd that more Superdelegates haven't flocked to Obama frankly? Afterall, he is declaring "victory" tonight with his big staged rally in Des Moines. Why aren't all the remaining Superdelegates supporting the presumptive (and presumptuous) nominee? They are clearly holding back from crowning him. Why?
Yes, he's slightly surpassed Clinton in terms of Superdelegate endorsements, but hardly a landslide showing of support and solidarity in my opinion. Especially in contrast with the media coverage and Obama's own behavior / assumption that this is over.
so you guys don't complain the party is pushing Clinton out of the race.
Watch how fast they gravitate to him on June 4th.
1) It won't matter. Nobody's switched from Obama to Clinton yet; for the same reason they could declare West Virginia for Clinton the moment the polls closed, we can call the primary for Obama after he gets 2025.
2) Nobody wants the perception that party bosses are deciding this thing. That's why there's been no huge bloc endorsements or stampede toward Obama. It doesn't mean that the 'undecided' supers haven't made their decision yet.
Not even the pledged delegates vote until the convention. By your rationale, John McCain is being delusional by acting like the nominee.
Anyway, I don't follow your argument - you seem to be saying that it's not enough for Obama win more delegates than Hillary Clinton - he has to humiliate her. Would you like to elaborate?
You are right. Technically McCain is not the nominee until the convention either.
The race between Clinton and Ron Paul is MUCH closer than the race between McCain and any of his opponents. The sole remaining candidate in the race, Ron Paul, hasn't won a single state, for example.
There really is no comparison. Clinton has won convincing victories in many, many states. She is trailing in the popular vote by less than 2%. She could still win the nomination within the rules of the process which allow the Superdelegates to vote their conscious (not bound by any other measure) at the Convention. The pledged delegates ARE bound and are supposed to follow the vote they committed to.
Obama hasn't managed to get the required Pledged Delegates he needed to secure the nomination without needing the Superdelegates. They don't actually get to vote until the Convention. In my mind that gives Hillary Clinton every reason to take her candidacy and her case to the Convention. She's earned that right.
I'm not sure where I said that he should "humiliate" her?
Sorry, meant to type "the race between Clinton and Obama" (not Ron Paul).
but at what cost?
"I actually think it is odd that more Superdelegates haven't flocked to Obama frankly?"
I think that's what's been addressed above: The supers are holding off on endorsing Obama in order to allow the pledged delegates from the remaining contests to put Obama over the top.
This "no one votes until the convention" line of argument is like saying that the November elections don't count because the presidential electors don't vote until January. Thus we won't know who is president until then.
It isn't.
The Superdelegates have no correlation in the November Election. They are, by definition, not bound by the voters. Pledged delegates and Presidential Electors are.
What do you see the role of the Superdelegates as being? To ratify the voters? What's the point of them then?
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